You should doubt everything! How would you respond to this statement?
Post your thoughts in the comments below, or on our Facebook page under this post. Don’t forget to listen to our podcast on Tuesday to hear my response or look for my written response next Thursday.
3 thoughts on “Quick Challenge Question: You Should Doubt Everything!”
Like with all things, ones beliefs should scale with the evidence. Because of that if you’re given nothing else other than the claim then you should doubt those things with low prior probability. More generally you should doubt those things with low posterior probability – for those claims with low priors you have to have sufficient evidence to bring it up.
You typically don’t need to doubt things with high prior probability unless there is counter evidence.
Looks like you have comments shut off for the followup post, and perhaps for all future posts, and are encouraging people to go to the facebook group. I don’t do facebook, so I’ll post my response to your answer to this challenge here but it looks like I might not be able to post my responses in the future if it is facebook-only.
> Should I doubt that I should doubt everything?
This is a word-game that Turek likes to play, and in that sense is not an honest move by him. Probability theory tells you exactly which things to doubt and which things not to and by how much. Since it is a subset of math and logic, to “doubt” math and logic is actually pretty silly and not something even Turek would do.
I think he likes to do this word-game because it seems clever and it lets him throw out any perceived skepticism, no matter how well justified, and thus keep to unsupported beliefs. That’s what it seems, anyway.
I have been super busy the last few weeks, and haven’t been able to respond to everyone’s comments and emails as I would like. I will most likely turn the comments back on after the new year when my schedule frees up again.
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